Happy 2012

New hope, new goals, new expectations, new optimism, new desire, new faith, new wish….comes along with every new year. Each new year ” is like a box of chocolate. You never know what you are going to get. ‘ Yet people like predictions. They would want to analyze, interpret, evaluate what the future is hold on for them. And here is my humble attempt to predict the year 2012.

Here I go……………………….

Like the way,  bad is better than worse, and like the way,  something is better than nothing, so will 2012 will be better than 2011. The year that went by,  was never a good year for the government at the center. It paid the price for all the corruption that happened right under its nose. Anna Hazare and his team were able to kick the govt right, left and center with a massive support like never before. To add fuel to the fire, even the economy didn’t  do good. Arm-twisting by the coalition parties meant that critical reforms to boost the economy was stalled. And to put it simple words -  everything that could go wrong, went wrong for the UPA.

But 2012,  will be a year of comeback for the UPA. Thanks for the short attention life span of the new middleclass. The popular enactment with Anna Hazare is likely to ebb. The episode in Mumbai stands as the testimony for it. This would give some breathing space for the government.  And then comes the mother of all elections – Uttar Pradesh. Thanks for the rampant corruption, a demolition spree, a disproportionate case and attrition of supporters for Maya, Congress is likely to win more assembly seats.  This win would surely re-vivify, re-vitalize,  and rouse up the congress at the center.

Giving enough courage to crack the whip at deceptive Mamta and get the 51%  FDI in retail and Lokpal to pass through. Diesel prices would be decontrolled. And then,  BJP would not be  able to block the govt from implementing goods and services tax bill. And Kundankulam would become operational. And this would bring down the power crisis. And then bills to reform the education sector and labour laws shall be taken up. Thus kick starting the much needed Reforms2.0 for the economic progress.

And now unto the world……………………………..

2012 will be the year of election for the US. And Barack Obama would win the elections. Despite over promising and under delivering, Barack Obama wins because of two reasons. One,  there is no other worthy opponent standing against him and two, known devil is better than the unkown one. But, some credit should be given unto him, because he recovered the economy to some extent. Remember, the economy was heading to a depression then. Also the US foreign policy dosent seem to look like aggression as it is used to be in Bush era. And US will completely withdraw all its troops from Iraq and the power will be transferred to the civilians.

Europe’s politicians will manage to stabilize the eurozone in 2012 and keep the continent’s common currency together. The European Union’s executive commission and the ECB would  convince the financial markets that,  troubled governments can pay their heavy debts and therefore deserve to borrow at affordable interest costs. Hopefully, Italy and Spain will borrow heavily in the first quarter at affordable interest costs. The determination of political elites to keep the euro together will win out.

Millions of Arabs dream of attaining democracy in 2012, will be fulfilled. Arab world saw the deadly protests that ousted two dictators and ended strongman Muammar Qadhafi’s rule with his brutal killing. The foundations for the democracy sahll be laid. A real parliment, a real police and judiciary would be put in place to start to build the country.

China, the world’s number two economy,  and its economic growth  is likely to slow down .  Loans to local governments through financing vehicles would be a major threat to China’s economy, with up to 2.5 trillion yuan ($396 billion) in debt falling due in 2012. Inflation, the housing bubble, export markets, and appreciating Yuan seem be the major factors behind the declining economic growth.  If global economic situation would not worsen, China’s growth would be at 9 percent.

Our neighbor Pakistan will enter 2012 with predictable uncertainty. Many say,  it would be a election year for Pakistan, as government is shortening tenure . Already battling severe power and fuel crisis, an early election would mean tough economic decisions would not be taken.  And the internal security situation in Pakistan will remain uncertain. Its relationship with US,  would soar but with India it would improve. It would be a mixed bag for Pakistan.

In short, the following thing would occur in 2012.

World economy recovering…………………………………..

Rise of democracy and peace………………………………………..

Better governance at the center………………………………..

Democratization of commerce…………………………………..

Yes, lets walk into 2012, with high dosage of OPTIMISM.

P.S – I am told, that intelligent persons are the one’s who predict the future and then explain why the predicted things didn’t happen. FYI, I would prove that I am an Intelligent guy.

The Dirty Picture

The aroma of cappuccino captivating my senses, I sipped this elixir of life. As I was immersing myself into this divine pleasure……………………….silence broke out………”machi FDI vandhichi naa, namma makkal enga da poovaangoo….marupudium inoru gandhi vandhu ivangala thorathi adikanum polIa” , FDI in retail became the topic of our vetti discussion. Reaching home after the aromatic coffee with ingenious vetti talk, I switched ON my friend the idiot box to see vidya balan showing her assests in The Dirty Picture…..but I fell on one of the prime time english news channel where people where debating about ‘FDI in retail’. Here was a guy, who was rich and handsome and was rattling against FDI in retail. Well….now…FDI in retail has become a vetti talk, a national debate and the source of inspiration for my vetti writing here in this blog. But………wait……..am not gonna hit the topic FDI in retail,  since a lot of people have discussed about it, spoke about its pros and cons and some have even raped it. Instead am gonna write about this new generation who fight for the poor in debates, the newspaper brains , the brand new MIDDLECLASS.

You know what when vegetable prices go up these new middle class  FORGET that the high price what they pay will only go to the middle men and farmers for whom they fighting for in debates. They go out and start protesting against the price rise. FYI, till now the money does not go to walmart wallah’s but then still they protested.  Well ok….let me leave that. Now, the new middle is all fighting for the poor kirana shop owners in debates that happen national tevevisions. Here is my question…will these people encourage their sons to start and run a kirana shop down in a puliampatti village? Or atleast will they give their daughter in marrage to a kirana shop owner? NO!!, they would encourage their sons to become a software engineer and would give their daughter in marrage to a person working in IT concern, forgeting the hand of FDI in it.

For all these years farmers have been called as poor farmers. What did these midlle class do to remove that stigma all these days?? Nothing. But, now…………come FDI all have become crusaders of sort. They want to support them in debates in national television, in vetti talks that happen in cafe coffee days and in facebook and twitter.

Well not FDI…it is the hypocritic nature of middle class that is going to affet India much.  Its surely a dirty picture out there.

The Brand – India.

Today…………. every board room across the world speak about India. NRI’s  wants to return back to India and become entrepreneurs. Business house’s want to have their presence in India. Income levels have risen. Aspirations have risen. A brand new India has risen.

"My only regret is that I am not 20 years younger because I think India
 is going through a very exciting period in its history"
                                                      - Ratan Tata, 2011.

This has been the great Indian growth story.

But………. back in 1991, the economy was all time low. India had to pledge gold  to infuse funds into the ‘kajana‘, which too got exhausted within the next six months. And India was seen as a bottomless pit for foreign aid. And India was just 40 days away from going bankrupt. With assassination of Rajiv Gandhi, things went from bad to worse.

Pamulaparti Venkata “Narasimha Rao” who almost retired, had to return back into politics to lead the minority government as the Prime Misnister. As the socialistic model was collapsing, he had to bring in a papradigm shift, which he did. He opted for the market oriented reforms. And his master stroke was to appoint a non-political reformer in the form of  Dr. Manmohan Singh as the finance minister of India.

If today Dr. Manmohan Sigh is regarded as the father of modern economic
liberalization, then P.V. Narasimha Rao is its Grand father.

Rao held the industrial portfolio with himself. He devalued rupee. He took away industrial licensing and MRTP clearances. With this the biggest hurdles to industrial expansion was dumped. He put a full stop to the dreaded license raj once and for all. He made the delicensing announcement on the day when Manmohan Singh presented his first budget. This made Manmohan Singh to be seen as the reformer, while Rao took the back seat.

Meanwhile Singh reduced the import duties, corporate tax and income tax. Foreign investment was liberalized and import of technology was freed. And he initiated the process of privatization of public sector companies.

Both Rao and Singh implemented policies to free up the economy and change India’s socialistc face to capitalistic one.

Twenty years later,  about 300 million people—equivalent to the entire population of the United States—have escaped extreme poverty.  The fruits of liberalisation reached its peak in 2007, when India recorded its highest GDP growth rate of 9%. With this, India became the second fastest growing major economy in the world, next only to China. Guess what?? nobody imagined it 20 years before.

All these policy changes brought in by Rao and Sigh was heavily criticised and was opposed. Opposition even came from the congress party itself. Yet Rao had the political chavunism in him, to get the bill through. But the goverment was shown the door in 1996 elections. Yes!!! this was the govt which worked for the welfare of the peple and not with the intention to get votes.

Comming to the current situation. If for the west, it is osama, obama, eurozone and inflation, then for India it is corruption.Corruption is hindering our growth. To accelerate growth, black money has to brought in as quickly as possible. Wellh….welll…..well… I do not beleive in such statements. FYI, countries have developed not because they dont have corruption but despite the corruption they had. It is the Anna  Hazare’s , Baba Ramdev’s and the media to sensationalize it. But the truth is, corruption in India has come down. Well…dont beleive it!! Then check it.

If the great Indian growth story has to be sustained then major reforms must be done in the following stuffs……………….

 1. Energy
 2. Labour reforms
 3. Infrastructure development
 4. Education
 5. Land reforms

Energy Reforms

The most important area of reforms is perhaps India’s power sector. Virtually no sector of the economy—industry, agriculture, or services—can achieve successful transformation without adequate supply of power. The power sector has been a government monopoly at the state level and suffers from proverbial inefficiency including large-scale thefts of electricity in almost every state. Reforms involving privatization of power generation and distribution should be be undertaken. This is the area with highest payoffs for imaginative reforms.

Labour Reforms

Second, Labor laws must be reformed so as to restore the employer’s right to layoff workers upon adequate compensation to them. At present, firms with 100 or more workers have no legal way to exit, since they cannot lay off their workers. This works as a major barrier to entry of new firms on a large scale: they hesitate to enter into a world that has no exit doors.

Infrastructure

Infrastructure is another important area of reforms. Roads, railways, and ports all need expansion as well as improvement in the quality of service. Cold chain storage network has to be established and ensure that food grains are not wasted away in logistics.

Education

Lakhs of students are graduating, year in and year out. The quality of the students and their employability is debatable. Reforms should be brought in, to improve the quality of the over all education system. More over, quality primary education should  reach the nooks and corners of our country. Universities in India also remain a state monopoly. With the need to cut the fiscal deficit, the state has no resources to spare. Therefore, like most other countries including Bangladesh and People’s Republic of China, India must allow the entry of private universities.

Land Reforms

The plight of people,  losing their valued land due to developmental purposes should be taken care of. They should be paid double the land value. This land reform is very important.

Finally, the reform of bureaucracy is essential. The problem of a bloated bureaucracy and the need for downsizing it is well recognized. But with policy making becoming an increasingly sophisticated and specialized activity, it is necessary to open the top bureaucracy to outside specialists.

These are the very stuffs, the government should work on. Without reforming these, if the issues of corruption and black money is solved, it is of no use, as the progress the progress of the nation would be dumped.

Well, yes corruption is an issue but it is not the only issue. Moreover, it is not as big an issue as it is being portrayed.

Dear Hazare’s and Ramdev’s, we also do have strong anti-dowry laws for your information. So, has the dowry in India reduced??

Dear Media, please dont write/telecast anything less or more than what it is required.

India is young. India is restless. And we Indians, want to fly high. Sooner, we need to become the fastest growing economy in the world. Our aspirations are higher than ever before. This is the real Brand India. Let us not camouflage our Brand India image under the word Corruption. Let us be responsible citizens.

Jai Ho!!!!