New hope, new goals, new expectations, new optimism, new desire, new faith, new wish….comes along with every new year. Each new year ” is like a box of chocolate. You never know what you are going to get. ‘ Yet people like predictions. They would want to analyze, interpret, evaluate what the future is hold on for them. And here is my humble attempt to predict the year 2012.
Here I go……………………….
Like the way, bad is better than worse, and like the way, something is better than nothing, so will 2012 will be better than 2011. The year that went by, was never a good year for the government at the center. It paid the price for all the corruption that happened right under its nose. Anna Hazare and his team were able to kick the govt right, left and center with a massive support like never before. To add fuel to the fire, even the economy didn’t do good. Arm-twisting by the coalition parties meant that critical reforms to boost the economy was stalled. And to put it simple words - everything that could go wrong, went wrong for the UPA.
But 2012, will be a year of comeback for the UPA. Thanks for the short attention life span of the new middleclass. The popular enactment with Anna Hazare is likely to ebb. The episode in Mumbai stands as the testimony for it. This would give some breathing space for the government. And then comes the mother of all elections – Uttar Pradesh. Thanks for the rampant corruption, a demolition spree, a disproportionate case and attrition of supporters for Maya, Congress is likely to win more assembly seats. This win would surely re-vivify, re-vitalize, and rouse up the congress at the center.
Giving enough courage to crack the whip at deceptive Mamta and get the 51% FDI in retail and Lokpal to pass through. Diesel prices would be decontrolled. And then, BJP would not be able to block the govt from implementing goods and services tax bill. And Kundankulam would become operational. And this would bring down the power crisis. And then bills to reform the education sector and labour laws shall be taken up. Thus kick starting the much needed Reforms2.0 for the economic progress.
And now unto the world……………………………..
2012 will be the year of election for the US. And Barack Obama would win the elections. Despite over promising and under delivering, Barack Obama wins because of two reasons. One, there is no other worthy opponent standing against him and two, known devil is better than the unkown one. But, some credit should be given unto him, because he recovered the economy to some extent. Remember, the economy was heading to a depression then. Also the US foreign policy dosent seem to look like aggression as it is used to be in Bush era. And US will completely withdraw all its troops from Iraq and the power will be transferred to the civilians.
Europe’s politicians will manage to stabilize the eurozone in 2012 and keep the continent’s common currency together. The European Union’s executive commission and the ECB would convince the financial markets that, troubled governments can pay their heavy debts and therefore deserve to borrow at affordable interest costs. Hopefully, Italy and Spain will borrow heavily in the first quarter at affordable interest costs. The determination of political elites to keep the euro together will win out.
Millions of Arabs dream of attaining democracy in 2012, will be fulfilled. Arab world saw the deadly protests that ousted two dictators and ended strongman Muammar Qadhafi’s rule with his brutal killing. The foundations for the democracy sahll be laid. A real parliment, a real police and judiciary would be put in place to start to build the country.
China, the world’s number two economy, and its economic growth is likely to slow down . Loans to local governments through financing vehicles would be a major threat to China’s economy, with up to 2.5 trillion yuan ($396 billion) in debt falling due in 2012. Inflation, the housing bubble, export markets, and appreciating Yuan seem be the major factors behind the declining economic growth. If global economic situation would not worsen, China’s growth would be at 9 percent.
Our neighbor Pakistan will enter 2012 with predictable uncertainty. Many say, it would be a election year for Pakistan, as government is shortening tenure . Already battling severe power and fuel crisis, an early election would mean tough economic decisions would not be taken. And the internal security situation in Pakistan will remain uncertain. Its relationship with US, would soar but with India it would improve. It would be a mixed bag for Pakistan.
In short, the following thing would occur in 2012.
World economy recovering…………………………………..
Rise of democracy and peace………………………………………..
Better governance at the center………………………………..
Democratization of commerce…………………………………..
Yes, lets walk into 2012, with high dosage of OPTIMISM.
P.S – I am told, that intelligent persons are the one’s who predict the future and then explain why the predicted things didn’t happen. FYI, I would prove that I am an Intelligent guy.
